Commentary on the February 2001 Trade Figures
Commentary on the February 2001 Trade Figures
By Eamonn Fingleton
America�s monthly trade deficits
(goods and services basis)
February 2001 = $27.0 billion
January 2001 = $33.3 billion
February 2000 = $27.5 billion
February 1999 = $18.4 billion
February 1998 = $10.7 billion
At $27.0 billion, the February trade deficit (announced April 18) represented a fall of $6.3 billion on the January deficit of $33.3 billion. The latest figure even represents a slight fall on the deficit of $27.5 billion recorded in February 2000. So much for the good news.
The bad news is that the fall stems mainly from the sharp slowdown in U.S. economic activity the since the autumn of last year.
Moreover the latest figure is still very large in absolute terms � higher indeed than in any monthly deficit ever recorded up to the end of 1999. In fact it represents a rise of nearly 47 percent on the deficit in February 1999 � and is two and a half times the deficit recorded in February 1998.
Given the speed and scale of the recent slowdown in the U.S. economy, the question is why the latest trade deficit was not much lower. Remember that the free-trade lobby excused the size of the deficits in 1998 and 1999 on the basis that the American economy was in the grip of an unprecedented consumer boom. The implication was that once the economic boom cooled, the deficits would quickly fall away if not actually disappear. Yet here we are in the slowest economy for many years and the latest monthly stands at almost twice the $13.7 billion average monthly deficit incurred in the boom year of 1998.
Attached below is the government press release which accompanied the announcement of the latest figures on April 18:
Goods and Services Deficit Decreases in February 2001
The Nation's international deficit in goods and services decreased to $27.0 billion in February, from $33.3 billion (revised) in January, as exports increased and imports decreased.
Goods and Services
* Exports increased to $90.5 billion from $89.6 billion in January. Goods were $65.2 billion in February, up from $64.6 billion in January, and services were $25.2 billion in February, up from $25.0 billion in January.
* Imports decreased to $117.4 billion from $122.8 billion in January. Goods were $98.6 billion in February, down from $104.1 billion in January, and services were $18.8 billion in February, up $0.1 billion from January.
* For goods, the deficit was $33.4 billion in February, down from $39.5 billion in January. For services, the surplus was $6.4 billion in February, up from $6.2 billion in January.
Goods by Category
* The January to February change in exports of goods reflected increases in industrial supplies and materials; capital goods; consumer goods; and foods, feeds, and beverages. Decreases occurred in automotive vehicles, parts, and engines and other goods.
* The January to February change in imports of goods reflected decreases in consumer goods; industrial supplies and materials; capital goods; foods, feeds, and beverages; other goods; and automotive vehicles, parts, and engines.
Goods by Geographic Area (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
* The goods deficit with Mexico decreased from $2.1 billion in January to $1.5 billion in February. Exports increased $0.2 billion (primarily industrial machinery and automobiles and automobile parts) to $8.9 billion, while imports decreased $0.4 billion (primarily petroleum and petroleum products and electrical machinery) to $10.3 billion.
* The goods deficit with China decreased from $7.2 billion in January to $5.1 billion in February. Exports increased $0.1 billion (primarily oil seeds) to $1.3 billion, while imports decreased $2.0 billion (primarily toys, games, and sporting goods; apparel; electrical machinery; and telecommunications equipment) to $6.4 billion.
* The goods deficit with Western Europe decreased from $5.6 billion in January to $3.3 billion in February. Exports increased $1.0 billion (primarily transport equipment) to $16.2 billion, while imports decreased $1.2 billion (primarily organic chemicals and artwork and antiques) to $19.5 billion.
This and more information is provided in the Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis press release:
U.S.International Trade in Goods and Services: February 2001 .
For further information on goods, contact Nick Orsini, Foreign Trade Division, Bureau of the Census, on (301) 457-2311; on services, contact Christopher Bach, Bureau of Economic Analysis, on (202) 606-9545.
April 19, 2001
Trade Deficit Shrinks as U.S. Cuts Imports
By BLOOMBERG NEWS
ASHINGTON, April 18 (Bloomberg News) � The United States trade deficit shrank to its narrowest level in more than a year in February as imports declined, the Commerce Department reported today, indicating that the cooling economy had reduced demand for consumer products, oil and goods from abroad.
The trade deficit declined to $27 billion from $33.3 billion in January, the largest drop since monthly record-keeping started in 1992, the department said. The month's deficit was the smallest since $25.7 billion in December 1999. Analysts had expected a February deficit of $33 billion.
The decline in imports, of 4.4 percent, also the largest drop on record, surprised analysts as well. "With the domestic economy slowing, import growth should slow, too, but this drop is too big to be sustainable," said Ian Shepherdson, chief United States economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, N.Y.
A separate report suggested that growth would be restrained for most of 2001. The index of leading economic indicators, released today by the Conference Board, fell 0.3 percent in March after a drop of 0.2 percent in February and has risen only once in six months. The decline in the index, which measures economic activity over the next three to six months, was in line with expectations.
Analysts found some reasons for optimism in the trade figures. Because of the way the Commerce Department calculates the gross domestic product, today's report added to the possibility that the overall economy grew, rather than contracted, in the first quarter. The government is to issue the G.D.P. report on April 27.
A decline in imports is considered positive because it implies that domestic companies rather than foreign competitors provide goods.
Another encouraging sign was that exports rose for a second consecutive month in February. The 1 percent gain, after a 0.4 percent increase a month earlier, was led by aircraft, chemicals, telecommunications equipment and farm products.
The drop in imports of consumer goods sent the trade deficit with China down to $5.1 billion, the lowest since April 1999. Imports from China, at $6.4 billion, were the lowest since May 1999.
The deficit in goods with Japan widened to $6.1 billion in February from $5.9 billion in January. Still, a year earlier, the monthly Japan deficit had been $6.7 billion.
The deficit with Canada, the United States' largest trading partner, narrowed to $4.5 billion from $5.9 billion. The deficit with Mexico dropped to $1.46 billion from $2.1 billion.
Copyright 2001 The New York Times Company | Privacy Information
http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/2001pr/02/exh1.txt
PART A: SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
EXHIBIT 1. U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES
JANUARY 1999 TO FEBRUARY 2001
(In millions of dollars. Details may not equal totals due to seasonal
adjustment and rounding. (R) Revised.)
Balance
Period Total Goods (1) Services
1999
Jan.- Dec. -264,971 -345,559 80,588
Jan.- Feb. -34,304 -48,001 13,697
January -15,946 -22,897 6,951
February -18,358 -25,104 6,746
March -18,372 -25,023 6,651
April -18,956 -25,851 6,895
May -21,003 -27,753 6,750
June -23,342 -30,381 7,039
July -24,740 -31,227 6,487
August -23,931 -30,518 6,587
September -24,047 -30,573 6,526
October -24,910 -31,576 6,666
November -25,712 -32,401 6,689
December -25,657 -32,255 6,598
2000
Jan.- Dec. -368,865 -449,853 80,988
Jan.- Feb. -54,843 -68,824 13,981
January -27,314 -34,116 6,802
February -27,529 -34,708 7,179
March -30,416 -37,215 6,799
April -29,219 -36,962 7,743
May -29,650 -36,541 6,891
June -29,874 -36,929 7,055
July -32,129 -38,590 6,461
August -29,952 -36,751 6,799
September -33,546 -39,395 5,849
October -33,168 -39,954 6,786
November -32,875 -39,124 6,249
December -33,199 -39,569 6,370
2001
Jan.- Feb. -60,238 -72,844 12,606
January (R) -33,251 -39,490 6,239
February -26,987 -33,354 6,367
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
January data as published last month:
-33,262 -39,500 6,238
___________________________________
Exports
Period Total Goods (1) Services
1999
Jan.- Dec. 956,242 684,358 271,884
Jan.- Feb. 153,275 109,262 44,013
January 77,035 54,966 22,069
February 76,240 54,296 21,944
March 77,046 54,687 22,359
April 77,864 55,403 22,461
May 77,753 55,343 22,410
June 78,679 55,696 22,983
July 79,004 56,385 22,619
August 81,108 58,402 22,706
September 81,857 59,094 22,763
October 82,349 59,193 23,156
November 83,198 59,682 23,516
December 84,107 61,211 22,896
2000
Jan.- Dec. 1,068,741 772,514 296,227
Jan.- Feb. 168,979 121,173 47,806
January 83,679 60,300 23,379
February 85,300 60,873 24,427
March 86,963 62,492 24,471
April 87,594 62,544 25,050
May 87,063 62,728 24,335
June 91,273 66,446 24,827
July 89,742 65,075 24,667
August 92,883 67,952 24,931
September 92,793 67,815 24,978
October 91,425 66,325 25,100
November 90,825 65,850 24,975
December 89,201 64,114 25,087
2001
Jan.- Feb. 180,039 129,822 50,217
January (R) 89,580 64,578 25,002
February 90,458 65,243 25,215
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
January data as published last month:
89,650 64,705 24,945
___________________________________
Imports
Period Total Goods (1) Services
1999
Jan.- Dec. 1,221,213 1,029,917 191,296
Jan.- Feb. 187,579 157,263 30,316
January 92,981 77,863 15,118
February 94,598 79,400 15,198
March 95,418 79,710 15,708
April 96,821 81,255 15,566
May 98,756 83,096 15,660
June 102,021 86,077 15,944
July 103,744 87,612 16,132
August 105,039 88,920 16,119
September 105,904 89,667 16,237
October 107,259 90,769 16,490
November 108,909 92,082 16,827
December 109,764 93,466 16,298
2000
Jan.- Dec. 1,437,606 1,222,367 215,239
Jan.- Feb. 223,821 189,996 33,825
January 110,992 94,415 16,577
February 112,829 95,581 17,248
March 117,378 99,706 17,672
April 116,813 99,506 17,307
May 116,713 99,269 17,444
June 121,147 103,375 17,772
July 121,871 103,665 18,206
August 122,834 104,702 18,132
September 126,339 107,210 19,129
October 124,593 106,279 18,314
November 123,700 104,974 18,726
December 122,400 103,683 18,717
2001
Jan.- Feb. 240,277 202,666 37,611
January (R) 122,831 104,068 18,763
February 117,445 98,597 18,848
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
January data as published last month:
122,912 104,205 18,707
(1) Data presented on a Balance of Payments (BOP) basis.
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U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Highlights
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April 18, 2001
Goods and Services Deficit Decreases in February 2001
The Nation's international deficit in goods and services decreased to $27.0 billion in February, from $33.3 billion (revised) in January, as exports increased and imports decreased.
Goods and Services
* Exports increased to $90.5 billion from $89.6 billion in January. Goods were $65.2 billion in February, up from $64.6 billion in January, and services were $25.2 billion in February, up from $25.0 billion in January.
* Imports decreased to $117.4 billion from $122.8 billion in January. Goods were $98.6 billion in February, down from $104.1 billion in January, and services were $18.8 billion in February, up $0.1 billion from January.
* For goods, the deficit was $33.4 billion in February, down from $39.5 billion in January. For services, the surplus was $6.4 billion in February, up from $6.2 billion in January.
Goods by Category
* The January to February change in exports of goods reflected increases in industrial supplies and materials; capital goods; consumer goods; and foods, feeds, and beverages. Decreases occurred in automotive vehicles, parts, and engines and other goods.
* The January to February change in imports of goods reflected decreases in consumer goods; industrial supplies and materials; capital goods; foods, feeds, and beverages; other goods; and automotive vehicles, parts, and engines.
Goods by Geographic Area (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
* The goods deficit with Mexico decreased from $2.1 billion in January to $1.5 billion in February. Exports increased $0.2 billion (primarily industrial machinery and automobiles and automobile parts) to $8.9 billion, while imports decreased $0.4 billion (primarily petroleum and petroleum products and electrical machinery) to $10.3 billion.
* The goods deficit with China decreased from $7.2 billion in January to $5.1 billion in February. Exports increased $0.1 billion (primarily oil seeds) to $1.3 billion, while imports decreased $2.0 billion (primarily toys, games, and sporting goods; apparel; electrical machinery; and telecommunications equipment) to $6.4 billion.
* The goods deficit with Western Europe decreased from $5.6 billion in January to $3.3 billion in February. Exports increased $1.0 billion (primarily transport equipment) to $16.2 billion, while imports decreased $1.2 billion (primarily organic chemicals and artwork and antiques) to $19.5 billion.
This and more information is provided in the Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis press release:
U.S.International Trade in Goods and Services: February 2001 .
For further information on goods, contact Nick Orsini, Foreign Trade Division, Bureau of the Census, on (301) 457-2311; on services, contact Christopher Bach, Bureau of Economic Analysis, on (202) 606-9545.
The next release is May 18, 2001
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Note: Total goods are reported on a balance of payments basis; commodityand country detail for goods are on a Census basis. Definitions are explained in the notes to the monthly press release.
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Related sites:
* U.S. Department of Commerce
* U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Division
* Bureau of Economic Analysis
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