More than $580,000,000,000! 
That's Fingleton's latest forecast for America's total trade deficit in 2004. Click here to see how huge that number really is.

 
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Commentary on the July 2001 Trade Figures
Sunday, October 21st, 2001

Commentary on these figures is combined with that on the August figures. See August commentary. Appended below is the official press release announcing the July figures.




U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES
July 2001

Goods and Services

The Bureau of the Census and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the
Department of Commerce, announced today that total July exports of $83.7
billion and imports of $112.6 billion resulted in a goods and services
deficit of $28.8 billion, $0.2 billion less than the $29.1 billion in June,
revised. July exports were $2.2 billion less than June exports of $85.9
billion. July imports were $2.4 billion less than June imports of $115.0
billion.

In July, the goods deficit decreased $0.1 billion from June to $35.4 billion,
and the services surplus increased $0.1 billion to $6.6 billion. Exports of
goods decreased to $58.8 billion from $60.8 billion, and imports of goods
decreased to $94.2 billion from $96.4 billion. Exports of services decreased
to $24.9 billion from $25.1 billion, and imports of services decreased to
$18.3 billion from $18.6 billion.

Goods

The June to July change in exports of goods reflected decreases in capital
goods ($0.6 billion); industrial supplies and materials ($0.6 billion);
automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($0.4 billion); and other goods
($0.3 billion). An increase occurred in consumer goods ($0.1 billion).
Foods, feeds, and beverages were virtually unchanged.

The June to July change in imports of goods reflected decreases in capital
goods ($0.8 billion); industrial supplies and materials ($0.7 billion);
automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($0.4 billion); and consumer goods
($0.2 billion). Increases occurred in foods, feeds, and beverages
($0.1 billion) and other goods ($0.1 billion).

Services

Services exports decreased $0.1 billion from June to July, mostly reflecting
decreases in travel and other transportation. Changes in the other
categories of services exports were small and nearly offsetting.

Services imports decreased $0.2 billion from June to July. The decrease
was more than accounted for by decreases in travel and other transportation.
Changes in the other categories of services imports were small and nearly
offsetting.

Goods and Services Moving Average

For the three months ending in July, exports of goods and services averaged
$85.7 billion, while imports of goods and services averaged $114.4 billion,
resulting in an average trade deficit of $28.7 billion. For the three months
ending in June, the average trade deficit was $29.6 billion, reflecting
average exports of $86.8 billion and average imports of $116.4 billion.

Selected Not Seasonally Adjusted Goods Details

The July figures showed surpluses, in billions of dollars, with Australia
$0.3 (for June $0.4), Egypt $0.3 ($0.1), Singapore $0.2 ($0.3), Brazil $0.2
($0.4), Hong Kong $0.2 ($0.4), and Argentina $0.1 ($0.1). Deficits were
recorded, in billions of dollars, with Western Europe -$8.6 (-$4.5),
China -$7.5 (-$6.6), Japan -$5.9 (-$5.0), Canada -$4.7 (-$4.3), OPEC -$3.6
(-$3.6), Mexico -$2.9 (-$3.1), Taiwan -$1.3 (-$1.5), and Korea -$1.0 (-$1.1).

Advanced technology products (ATP) exports were $15.1 billion in July and
imports were $16.5 billion, resulting in a deficit of $1.4 billion. July
exports were $2.6 billion less than the $17.7 billion in June, while imports
were $0.1 billion less than the $16.6 billion in June.

Revisions

Goods carry-over in July was $0.5 billion (0.9 percent) for exports and
$0.4 billion (0.4 percent) for imports. For June, revised export carry-over
was $0.1 billion (0.2 percent), revised down from $0.3 billion (0.5 percent).
For June, revised import carry-over was $0.2 billion (0.2 percent), revised
down from $0.7 billion (0.7 percent).

Services exports and imports for January through June 2001 were revised to
incorporate revisions to BEA's quarterly U.S. international transactions
accounts (ITA's), which were released September 12 (see page 29 for the
revision policy). The revised quarterly and monthly estimates are based on
more complete source data than were available previously.

Services exports for June were revised down $0.1 billion to $25.1 billion.
Downward revisions in other private services (which includes items such as
business, professional, and technical services and financial services) and
royalties and license fees were partly offset by an upward revision in
transfers under U.S. military sales contracts. Services imports for June
were revised down $0.3 billion, to $18.6 billion. Downward revisions in
royalties and license fees and other private services were partly offset by
an upward revision in travel.




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