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| Commentary on the August 2001 Trade Figures |
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Monday, October 22nd, 2001
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America�s monthly trade deficits (goods and services basis):
May 2001 $28.2 billion
June 2001 $29.1 billion
July 2001 $29.2 billion
August 2001 $27.1 billion
August 2000 $30.8 billion
August 1999 $23.6 billion
With the weakening of the U.S. economy, the U.S. trade deficits have predictably continued to moderate slightly. The July deficit of $29.2 billion, for instance, represented a fall of nearly 9 percent on July 2000. The August deficit of $27.1 billion was down 12 percent compared to August 2000.
Even so, thanks to the fact that the deficits earlier in the year were some of the largest ever recorded, the cumulative deficit for the first eight months of 2001 -- at $240.1 billion � represents only a fractional decrease on the total of $240.9 billion for the same period in 2000.
If the recent slightly improving trend continues, we are on target for a total deficit for the full calendar year of 2001 closely in line with my prediction of $350 billion. That would represent a fall of a mere $20 billion on the all-time record incurred in 2000 � a truly miniscule improvement given how much weaker the U.S. economy has been in 2001. (A weak U.S. economy traditionally means a marked decrease in U.S. imports.)
Attached is an official commentary that accompanied the announcement of the August figures.
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U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Highlights � August 2001
October 19 , 2001
The Nation's international deficit in goods and services decreased to $27.1 billion in August, from $29.2 billion (revised) in July, as exports increased and imports decreased.
Goods and Services
* Exports increased to $84.5 billion from $83.6 billion in July. Goods were $59.5 billion in August, up from $58.7 billion in July, and services were $25.0 billion in August, up from $24.9 billion in July.
* Imports decreased to $111.6 billion from $112.8 billion in July. Goods were $93.3 billion in August, down from $94.5 billion in July, and services were $18.3 billion in August, up from $18.2 billion in July.
* For goods, the deficit was $33.8 billion in August, down from $35.8 billion in July. For services, the surplus was $6.7 billion in August, virtually unchanged from July.
Goods by Category
* The July to August change in exports of goods reflected increases in industrial supplies and materials; automotive vehicles, parts, and engines; foods, feeds, and beverages; and other goods. Decreases occurred in capital goods and consumer goods.
* The July to August change in imports of goods reflected decreases in industrial supplies and materials; capital goods; consumer goods; other goods; and foods, feeds, and beverages. An increase occurred in automotive vehicles, parts, and engines.
Goods by Geographic Area (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
* The goods deficit with China increased from $7.5 billion in July to $8.1 billion in August. Exports increased $0.4 billion (primarily transport equipment) to $1.9 billion, while imports increased $1.0 billion (primarily toys, games, and sporting goods; telecommunications equipment; electrical machinery; and computers and computer products) to $10.0 billion.
* The goods deficit with Mexico decreased from $2.9 billion in July to $2.5 billion in August. Exports increased $1.3 billion (primarily automobiles and automobile parts; electrical machinery; and transport equipment) to $9.0 billion, while imports increased $1.0 billion (primarily electrical machinery and telecommunications equipment) to $11.5 billion.
* The goods deficit with Western Europe decreased from $8.6 billion in July to $5.4 billion in August. Exports increased $1.2 billion (primarily transport equipment) to $13.5 billion, while imports decreased $2.0 billion (primarily pharmaceutical products; organic chemicals; and nonmetallic minerals) to $19.0 billion.
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Contact Eamonn Fingleton |
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