|
|
| Commentary on the March 2001 Trade Figures |
|
Monday, May 21st, 2001
|
America�s monthly trade deficits (goods and services basis)
March 2001 $31.2 billion
February 2001 $26.9 billion
March 2000 $30.4 billion
March 1999 $18.4 billion
March 1998 $12.6 billion
Oops! Here we go again. After an all too brief respite in which the trade deficits fell slightly, they seem to be headed north again. The falling trend had begun last September and was driven in large measure by America�s economic slowdown and a consequent easing of America�s appetite for imports. But the March deficit, at $31.2 billion, represents a startling rise of 16 percent on February. It is also a significant rise on the $30.4 billion deficit recorded in March 2000. That said we should be thankful for small mercies: at least the latest deficit is less than the all-time record figure of $33.5 billion deficit of September 2000.
The upward blip is nonetheless ominous and certainly makes me wonder whether my forecast of a goods-and-services deficit of $350 billion for 2001 (compared to an all-time record deficit of $370 billion in 2000) may prove too low. Let�s not rush to judgement but rather wait for the April deficit, which will be published in mid-June.
Attached below is the U.S. Census Office�s official statement accompanying the latest figures.
May 18, 2001
Goods and Services Deficit Increases in March 2001
The Nation's international deficit in goods and services increased to $31.2 billion in March, from $26.9 billion (revised) in February, as exports decreased and imports increased.
Goods and Services
* Exports decreased to $89.5 billion from $90.4 billion in February. Goods were $64.1 billion in March, down from $65.2 billion in February, and services were $25.4 billion in March, up from $25.2 billion in February.
* Imports increased to $120.6 billion from $117.2 billion in February. Goods were $101.7 billion in March, up from $98.4 billion in February, and services were $18.9 billion in March, up from $18.8 billion in February.
* For goods, the deficit was $37.6 billion in March, up from $33.2 billion in February. For services, the surplus was $6.5 billion in March, up from $6.4 billion in February.
Goods by Category
* The February to March change in exports of goods reflected decreases in capital goods and other goods. Increases occurred in automotive vehicles, parts, and engines; industrial supplies and materials; and foods, feeds, and beverages. Consumer goods were virtually unchanged.
* The February to March change in imports of goods reflected increases in consumer goods; capital goods; and automotive vehicles, parts, and engines. Decreases occurred in other goods and foods, feeds, and beverages. Industrial supplies and materials were virtually unchanged.
Goods by Geographic Area (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
* The goods deficit with Japan increased from $6.1 billion in February to $6.2 billion in March. Exports increased $0.6 billion (primarily fish, electrical machinery, and scientific instruments) to $5.9 billion, while imports increased $0.7 billion (primarily telecommunications equipment and automobiles and automobile parts) to $12.1 billion.
* The goods deficit with China increased from $5.1 billion in February to $5.7 billion in March. Exports increased $0.5 billion (primarily transport equipment and oil seeds) to $1.9 billion, while imports increased $1.2 billion (primarily computers and computer products; toys, games, and sporting goods; and telecommunications equipment) to $7.6 billion.
* The goods deficit with Mexico increased from $1.5 billion in February to $2.8 billion in March. Exports increased $0.4 billion (primarily cereals and cereal preparations and computers and computer products) to $9.2 billion, while imports increased $1.7 billion (primarily automobiles and automobile parts, electrical machinery, and petroleum and petroleum products) to $12.0 billion.
|
|
Contact Eamonn Fingleton |
|
|
|
