|
|
| Commentary on the April 2001 Trade Figures |
|
Thursday, June 28th, 2001
|
America�s monthly trade deficits (goods and services basis)
April 2001 $32.2 billion
March 2001 $33.1 billion
April 2000 $29.4 billion
April 1999 $18.7 billion
The April figure was bad -- much worse than the press indicated. As reported in the press, the April figure represented a reduction of $0.9 billion on the March 2001 deficit of $33.1 billion. So this is good news. Well, yes and no. And mainly no. The point is that that figure of $33.1 billion for March is actually a revised number. What the press did not report is that that revised number is up a shocking $1.9 billion on a figure of $31.2 billion originally reported for March. So compared to the figure first reported for March, the April deficit is actually up $1.0 billion. We have to wonder whether this April figure will also be revised upwards (there has been a persistent tendency in recent years for revisions to be upward rather than downward).
The latest figure is further evidence that the trend this year is running much worse than most economic commentators (this present writer included) had originally expected. The view had been that because the United States was undergoing a severe slowdown, this would strongly damp the nation's appetite for imports and thus induce the first contraction in the deficit in many years. Thus my forecast for 2001 has been for a goods-and-services deficit of $350 billion, a significant reduction compared to a deficit of $370 billion in 2000. I will wait another month before deciding but it is becoming clear that my $350 billion forecast is looking distinctly low. In truth we may be headed for yet another record deficit in 2001 -- a truly devastating state of affairs given the weakness of U.S. demand in recent months. Attached below is the U.S. Census Bureau's press release announcing the latest monthly figures.
June 21, 2001
Goods and Services Deficit Decreases in April 2001
The Nation's international deficit in goods and services decreased to $32.2 billion in April, from $33.1 billion (revised) in March, as imports decreased more than exports.
Goods and Services
Exports decreased to $86.9 billion from $88.7 billion in March. Goods were $62.1 billion in April, down from $63.9 billion in March, and services were virtually unchanged at $24.8 billion.
Imports decreased to $119.1 billion from $121.8 billion in March. Goods were $100.0 billion in April, down from $102.7 billion in March, and services were virtually unchanged at $19.1 billion.
For goods, the deficit was $37.8 billion in April, down from $38.8 billion in March. For services, the surplus was virtually unchanged from March at $5.7 billion.
Goods by Category
The March to April change in exports of goods reflected decreases in capital goods; industrial supplies and materials; and foods, feeds, and beverages. Increases occurred in other goods and consumer goods. Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines were virtually unchanged.
The March to April change in imports of goods reflected decreases in capital goods and consumer goods. Increases occurred in automotive vehicles, parts, and engines; other goods; and industrial supplies and materials. Foods, feeds, and beverages were virtually unchanged.
Goods by Geographic Area (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
The goods deficit with Japan increased from $6.2 billion in March to $6.4 billion in April. Exports decreased $0.8 billion (primarily scientific instruments, computers and computer products, and electrical machinery) to $5.1 billion, while imports decreased $0.6 billion (primarily electrical machinery and computers and computer products) to $11.5 billion.
The goods deficit with China increased from $5.7 billion in March to $6.3 billion in April. Exports decreased $0.5 billion (primarily oil seeds and transport equipment) to $1.4 billion, while imports increased $0.1 billion (primarily toys, games, and sporting goods) to $7.7 billion.
The goods deficit with Western Europe increased from $4.7 billion in March to $5.8 billion in April. Exports decreased $2.0 billion (primarily computers and computer products, electrical machinery, and telecommunications equipment) to $15.3 billion, while imports decreased $0.8 billion (primarily transport equipment and nonferrous metals) to $21.1 billion.
This and more information is provided in the Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis press release:
U.S.International Trade in Goods and Services: April 2001 .
For further information on goods, contact Nick Orsini, Foreign Trade Division, Bureau of the Census, on (301) 457-2311; on services, contact Christopher Bach, Bureau of Economic Analysis, on (202) 606-9545.
The next release is July 19, 2001.
|
|
Contact Eamonn Fingleton |
|
|
|
