More than $580,000,000,000! 
That's Fingleton's latest forecast for America's total trade deficit in 2004. Click here to see how huge that number really is.

 
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About Eamonn Fingleton
Author of Unsustainable, In Praise of Hard Industries and Blindside
 
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• Unsustainable • In Praise of Hard Industries • Blindside

 
 


Links of Interest
 
Trading Blows Archive
Yen Outlook: Short-term cloudy, long-term bright
Saturday, April 2nd, 2005
Boeing: Flying Into a Mountain (Part 1)
Thursday, March 31st, 2005
Boeing: Flying Into a Mountain (Part 2)
Thursday, March 31st, 2005
Eamonn Fingleton: Thirty Years of Prescience
Tuesday, January 4th, 2005
Stop the World!: Second Thoughts of a First Rank Economist
Wednesday, September 22nd, 2004
Iraq, Japan, and the Truth about American Trade Policy
Friday, August 13th, 2004
The State Department and the Trade Disaster
Thursday, August 12th, 2004
Right Royal Climb-down at Chatham House
Monday, August 2nd, 2004
The Sun and the Dragon: America's Wishful Thinking About Sino-Japanese Relations
Wednesday, July 14th, 2004
Harley-Davidson: Hog-tied in Asia
Sunday, July 11th, 2004
East Asian Alliance
Thursday, May 20th, 2004
Memo to Wall Street: Manufacturing Still Matters
Thursday, May 13th, 2004
The Sphinx in Winter
Thursday, February 26th, 2004
American trade: hurtling towards the tipping point
Tuesday, November 18th, 2003
Amazon and the truth about East Asian economics
Friday, November 7th, 2003
The Trade Disaster: A Primer
Tuesday, October 28th, 2003
Trade Disaster Primer
Thursday, October 9th, 2003
Sequel to the Debate that Never Was
Friday, September 26th, 2003
How the Beltway Culture Distorts America's World View
Friday, August 29th, 2003
The CELI Debate: The Contradictions of the "Basket Case" Story
Tuesday, August 26th, 2003
The CELI Debate: A Note on the Event's (Rather Lengthy) Genesis
Tuesday, August 19th, 2003
The mood on globalism: is the ground shifting?
Friday, July 18th, 2003
Japan's Fake Funk: Rebutting the Rebutters
Tuesday, February 4th, 2003
The myth of Japan's "lost decade": taking the message to Washington
Thursday, November 21st, 2002
Japan's fake funk: the truth about a nation that won't import
Thursday, November 14th, 2002
Ivan Hall, "Bamboozled," and the State of Japanese Banking
Saturday, October 12th, 2002
A Sharp Eye on China
Saturday, October 5th, 2002
Is This History's Greatest Economic Fallacy?
Monday, April 22nd, 2002
Steel is No Sunset Industry
Tuesday, March 26th, 2002
Toppling Saddam: The Japanese Connection
Friday, March 22nd, 2002
Steel: Dean Baker Spears the Press
Thursday, March 14th, 2002
Mike Millard's Revealing Take on Japan
Thursday, March 7th, 2002
Commentary on the December 2001 Trade Figures
Thursday, March 7th, 2002
Commentary on the November 2001 Trade Figures
Thursday, March 7th, 2002
The News Was Bad In 2001 -- But Worse Is Coming In 2002
Thursday, February 28th, 2002
Educating W: The Pitfalls of East Asian Trade Diplomacy
Thursday, February 21st, 2002
Japan's "Collapse": When Will the Scales Fall from America's Eyes?
Friday, February 15th, 2002
The Truth about Japan and China
Monday, February 4th, 2002
With the World's Strongest Economy, the US Should Be Negotiating From a Position of Strength on Trade Issues
Wednesday, January 30th, 2002
Follies: This Time We're Really, REALLY Angry
Tuesday, January 29th, 2002
Factline: The Perils of Economic Forecasting
Thursday, January 24th, 2002
U.S. Economic Recovery Can Only Begin At Home
Wednesday, January 23rd, 2002
Follies: This is Protectionism?
Tuesday, January 22nd, 2002
The Sham Of Chinese Market Opening
Monday, January 21st, 2002
Factline: Service Jobs and US Living Standards
Friday, January 18th, 2002
Interview: "Japan Has Not Been Frank About Its Economic System"
Wednesday, January 16th, 2002
Bush Unwittingly Makes the Case for a New Trade and Industrial Policy
Wednesday, January 16th, 2002
Follies: Time for a New US Ambassador to Pakistan
Tuesday, January 15th, 2002
New WTO Decision on US Tax Law Could Kill the Golden Goose
Monday, January 14th, 2002
Factline: U.S. Trade Flows
Wednesday, January 9th, 2002
Argentina's Collapse Undermines Theoretical Basis of U.S. Trade Policy
Wednesday, January 9th, 2002
Follies: 'Global' Corporation Runs to US Government for Help
Tuesday, January 8th, 2002
The Real Roots of the Argentine Financial Crisis
Tuesday, January 8th, 2002
The Chinese Economic Challenge and Its Geo-political Implications
Wednesday, January 2nd, 2002
Follies: Trade Rep. Zoellick's Blurry Vision
Wednesday, January 2nd, 2002
The Fate of American Steel
Friday, December 28th, 2001
Commentary on the October 2001 Trade Figures
Tuesday, December 25th, 2001
Commentary on the October 2001 Trade Figures
Tuesday, December 25th, 2001
2001 Current Account Will Reach 4.2 percent of GDP
Friday, December 21st, 2001
Factline: Was the 1990s Really a 'Goldilocks" Economy?
Friday, December 21st, 2001
Follies: America's Most Backward Industry
Wednesday, December 19th, 2001
The Disconnect between Productivity, Prosperity, and Trade Policy
Wednesday, December 19th, 2001
Bush Should Help Steel and Textile Industries
Wednesday, December 19th, 2001
Earth to Mondale: Where's the Beef?
Monday, December 17th, 2001
Factline: Trade-Loser Industries Strongly Back Fast Track
Thursday, December 13th, 2001
Congressional Debate on Fast Track Misrepresented the Nature of Globalization
Thursday, December 13th, 2001
What the Fast Track Vote Really Means
Thursday, December 13th, 2001
Follies: Clarifying the Need for ... Campaign Finance Reform
Monday, December 10th, 2001
New Fabrizio, McLaughlin Poll Shows Majority of Voters Opposed to Fast Track Authority
Friday, December 7th, 2001
Fast Track Victimizes America's Poor
Friday, December 7th, 2001
Follies: ARMEY-NOMICS II
Thursday, December 6th, 2001
Corning and Japanese Jobs: Readers Respond
Wednesday, December 5th, 2001
Factline: New Poll Shows Public Strongly Opposed to Fast Track
Wednesday, December 5th, 2001
Zoellick's Ignorance of Trade History Will Lead to Bad Policy
Wednesday, December 5th, 2001
Follies: Spinning Out of Control on Fast Track
Tuesday, December 4th, 2001
Follies: ARMEY-NOMICS
Monday, December 3rd, 2001
Inadequate US Trade Data Has Policymakers Flying Blind
Monday, December 3rd, 2001
Follies: An Age of Miracles?
Thursday, November 29th, 2001
Factline: The Cronyism Continues in Emerging Markets
Thursday, November 29th, 2001
Follies: Bob Zoellick - Trade Statesman or Easy Mark?
Wednesday, November 28th, 2001
Reshuffling Deficits Will Not Revive the Economy
Wednesday, November 28th, 2001
Commentary on the September 2001 Trade Figures
Monday, November 26th, 2001
Corning�s Layoff Policy: �Fire the Americans First�
Saturday, November 24th, 2001
There's Little 'Free Trade' in the Latest Free Trade Agreement
Tuesday, November 20th, 2001
The War on Terrorism Precludes Free Trade As Practiced Today
Tuesday, November 20th, 2001
Losing the Economic Battle of Doha
Monday, November 19th, 2001
Factline: Trade Actions in the WTO Involving the US
Friday, November 16th, 2001
Follies: USTR Zoellick Reveals Grand Strategy at Doha
Friday, November 16th, 2001
False Promises via Free Trade
Friday, November 16th, 2001
You Know Better Than This, Bob Zoellick
Friday, November 16th, 2001
Follies: Rep. Thomas: Free Trade is Great for Everyone Except My Constituents
Friday, November 16th, 2001
Greider on America's Part-time Corporate Patriots
Tuesday, November 6th, 2001
Manufacturing Should be US Priority in World Trade Talks
Monday, November 5th, 2001
Follies: Does Free Trade Really Encourage Freedom?
Monday, November 5th, 2001
Defense Mergers May Make Economic But Not Military Sense
Friday, November 2nd, 2001
Factline: China's Trade Flows
Friday, November 2nd, 2001
Factline: American Public Favors American Jobs
Tuesday, October 30th, 2001
Follies: The Truth About Workers Displaced by Trade
Tuesday, October 30th, 2001
The Trade Debate We Need Isn't Occurring
Tuesday, October 30th, 2001
Swiss Roll: Having It Both Ways on Globalism
Thursday, October 25th, 2001
National Economies and Patriotism Are Not 'Societal Indulgences'
Thursday, October 25th, 2001
Follies: Trade Journalism: the Upsidedown Inverted Pyramid
Thursday, October 25th, 2001
When Free Traders Excuse Terrorism
Thursday, October 25th, 2001
The Academic Frauds Supporting Fast Track Trade Authority
Monday, October 22nd, 2001
Commentary on the August 2001 Trade Figures
Monday, October 22nd, 2001
Factline: Western Hemisphere Trade Trends
Monday, October 22nd, 2001
Follies: Rules are Rules - Except Where Trade is Involved
Monday, October 22nd, 2001
New Trade Negotiations Not Like to Serve America
Monday, October 22nd, 2001
Commentary on the July 2001 Trade Figures
Sunday, October 21st, 2001
Thinking the Unthinkable
Wednesday, October 17th, 2001
Before Passing Fast Track, Congress Must See Outcome of WTO Meeting
Friday, October 12th, 2001
Factline: Trends in Manufacturing Jobs
Friday, October 12th, 2001
East Asian Trade and the Future of Economics
Thursday, October 11th, 2001
Will Fast Track Worsen the Global Slump?
Wednesday, October 10th, 2001
Follies: And Just Where Will Those New U.S. Exports Go?
Tuesday, October 9th, 2001
Factline: The Fast Track to Recession
Tuesday, October 9th, 2001
Follies: McCarthyism at USTR
Tuesday, October 2nd, 2001
Factline: Trade: A Multinational Corporate Monopoly (cont'd)
Tuesday, October 2nd, 2001
Economic Slowdown Should Prompt President to Reform Trade Policy
Tuesday, October 2nd, 2001
The Pentagon Gets It Half Right on Economics
Tuesday, October 2nd, 2001
Whose national security is it anyway?
Friday, September 28th, 2001
Bob Zoellick: Cynic, Zealot, and Opportunist
Thursday, September 27th, 2001
Bye Bye, Economics?
Thursday, September 27th, 2001
Follies: 'Free & Open Societies' - Qatari Style
Tuesday, September 25th, 2001
War and Globalization
Thursday, September 20th, 2001
Factline: Who Exports?
Wednesday, September 19th, 2001
Follies: Feeding the Hand that Bites Us
Tuesday, September 18th, 2001
Factline: US Wages and Productivity: Where's the Beef?
Tuesday, September 18th, 2001
Follies: A One-Track Mind on Fast Track
Tuesday, September 18th, 2001
Terrorists Demolished Symbol of Globalization
Friday, September 14th, 2001
Industries Vital to National Defense Are In Need of Defense by National Leaders
Friday, September 14th, 2001
The Quick Fix
Wednesday, September 12th, 2001
Factline: The Phony Mexican Export Market
Friday, September 7th, 2001
Follies: Insurance Fraud
Tuesday, September 4th, 2001
Trade with Japan: A One-way Street
Tuesday, September 4th, 2001
Gary Condit and the Multinationals
Tuesday, September 4th, 2001
Commentary on the June 2001 Trade Figures
Thursday, August 30th, 2001
Factline: Fast Track to Unemployment
Wednesday, August 29th, 2001
Follies: HEADS, Mexico Wins. TAILS, US Loses.
Tuesday, August 28th, 2001
The Case of the Reluctant Laureates
Tuesday, August 28th, 2001
Why the Consumer Won't Save Us
Tuesday, August 28th, 2001
Defending the Foundation of Defense
Wednesday, August 22nd, 2001
As the fat lady sings, it's curtains for the high-dollar era
Monday, August 20th, 2001
How China Plans to Dominate the Shipbuilding Industry
Friday, August 17th, 2001
Factline: When Free Trade Undermines Democracy
Tuesday, August 14th, 2001
Follies: The Biggest NAFTA Myth
Tuesday, August 14th, 2001
Why Clinton Won't Mention Trade in His Memoirs
Tuesday, August 14th, 2001
Lies, Damned Lies, and Income Statistics
Tuesday, August 14th, 2001
Follies: Vietnam Trade Breakthrough
Wednesday, August 8th, 2001
A Tenuous Reprieve for Fast Track
Wednesday, August 8th, 2001
Factline: Immigration - Land of the Free, Home of the Laid-off
Wednesday, August 8th, 2001
U.S. Trade Policy: Serving the 'World Community' or the American People?
Wednesday, August 8th, 2001
The Deficits: Paul Volcker Speaks Out
Monday, August 6th, 2001
Follies: At Least His Advisers are Smart - Cont'd
Monday, August 6th, 2001
Export Illusions: Most International Trade Agreements are about Investment, Not Exports
Friday, August 3rd, 2001
Follies: More Fear-Mongering From the Protectionists
Thursday, August 2nd, 2001
Factline: US Trade Flows -- Internet or Import-net?
Thursday, August 2nd, 2001
November's WTO Ministerial Meeting Not on a 'Fast Track'
Wednesday, August 1st, 2001
Factline: 1990s, Greatest Economy Ever?
Tuesday, July 31st, 2001
Follies: Bad Faith on Fast Track
Tuesday, July 31st, 2001
Factline: Western Hemisphere Trade
Tuesday, July 31st, 2001
Follies: Fast Track to Poverty for Hispanic-Americans
Tuesday, July 31st, 2001
Factline: Immigration, Another Broken NAFTA Promise
Tuesday, July 31st, 2001
Follies: An 'F' for 'W' on Fast Track
Tuesday, July 31st, 2001
Factline: The Real 1990s Boom -- Imports
Tuesday, July 31st, 2001
Affected, but not Dominated, by Globalization
Tuesday, July 31st, 2001
The Economic Consequences of Mr. Griswold
Monday, July 30th, 2001
The Real Challenge of Globalization: Securing the Lion's Share
Wednesday, July 25th, 2001
Commentary on the May 2001 Trade Figures
Tuesday, July 24th, 2001
Commentary on the May 2001 Trade Figures
Tuesday, July 24th, 2001
Commentary on the May 2001 Trade Figures
Tuesday, July 24th, 2001
Responding to Beijing 2008: An Investor Boycott of Coca-Cola
Monday, July 23rd, 2001
Free Trade Doesn't Always Promote Freedom
Monday, July 23rd, 2001
Blindside Revisited
Friday, July 20th, 2001
When Free Markets Frown on Free Trade
Wednesday, July 18th, 2001
The WTO, Bob Zoellick, and the Surrender of America's National Interest
Wednesday, July 18th, 2001
Ivan Hall on Japan's Phoney Slump
Friday, July 13th, 2001
A Treasury Secretary Who Gets It?
Thursday, July 12th, 2001
New China Commission Tilts Toward Beijing
Thursday, July 12th, 2001
America, the Dependent: Some Independence Day Reflections
Wednesday, July 4th, 2001
Sticks, Stones, and Trade Policy
Tuesday, July 3rd, 2001
Sticks, Stones, and Trade Policy
Tuesday, July 3rd, 2001
NAM Betrays Its Members' Interests With Its Free Trade Policy
Tuesday, July 3rd, 2001
Commentary on the April 2001 Trade Figures
Thursday, June 28th, 2001
Bad Trade Agreements -- not a Lack of Agreements --Discredits Bush Administration's Case
Thursday, June 28th, 2001
Globalization Factline: What Gives with Japan Trade?
Thursday, June 28th, 2001
The view from 2005
Sunday, June 24th, 2001
Globalization Factline: Hi-Tech Future? Not!
Friday, June 22nd, 2001
Globalization Factline: Emerging Markets?
Tuesday, June 19th, 2001
Globalization Factline: Immigration Flows
Tuesday, June 19th, 2001
Globalization Factline: Clinton's Trade Legacy
Tuesday, June 19th, 2001
Globalization Follies: Trade, China, & Freedom?
Tuesday, June 19th, 2001
Globalization Factline: NAFTA at Seven
Tuesday, June 19th, 2001
Globalization Follies: Firing Your Customers!
Tuesday, June 19th, 2001
Bush Puts Free Trade Credentials Aside to Aid U.S. Steel Industry
Tuesday, June 19th, 2001
Selling Farmers Short In Trade Negotiations
Tuesday, June 19th, 2001
Fed Up With the Dallas Fed
Monday, June 18th, 2001
From the Folks Who Brought You the Internet Crash...
Sunday, June 17th, 2001
The Enigma of Japanese Trade
Sunday, June 17th, 2001
Key Facts on the Trade Disaster
Sunday, June 17th, 2001
The Trade Disaster: A Primer
Saturday, June 16th, 2001
The Trade Disaster: A Primer
Saturday, June 16th, 2001
George W. Bush, Economic Nationalist?
Thursday, June 14th, 2001
Japan Sees China as Economic Threat; Is the U.S. Blind?
Wednesday, June 13th, 2001
Globalization Follies 2001: Are Some Amateurs More Equal Than Others?
Tuesday, June 12th, 2001
Globalization Follies 2001: Off The Table
Tuesday, June 12th, 2001
Globalization Follies 2001: Fast Track, No Headlights
Tuesday, June 12th, 2001
Globalization Follies 2001: Class Journalism?
Tuesday, June 12th, 2001
Commentary on the March 2001 Trade Figures
Monday, May 21st, 2001
A Crimson Face at the Harvard Business School
Thursday, May 17th, 2001
Missing the Forest for the Trees on Fast Track
Tuesday, May 15th, 2001
Chamber of Commerce Needs a Philosophy Seminar
Tuesday, May 15th, 2001
The Anomalous Position of Christopher LaFleur
Tuesday, May 15th, 2001
Commentary on the February 2001 Trade Figures
Thursday, April 26th, 2001
Trade Deficit Forecast for the Year 2001
Sunday, April 22nd, 2001
Trade: The Ticking Time Bomb that the Press Keeps Ignoring
Friday, April 6th, 2001
The Worst Peacetime Numbers of Any Major Nation in Recorded History...
Friday, April 6th, 2001
America In Hock: Why the Trade Deficits Mean Even More Americans Are Working for Bosses Based in Stuttgart, Zurich, and Tokyo
Friday, April 6th, 2001
The Fast Education of Paul O'Neill
Friday, March 30th, 2001
All-Time Record Trade Deficit Threatens U.S. Economic Security, But Who Cares?
Wednesday, March 28th, 2001
Failed Talks Reveal Global "Jungle"
Tuesday, March 27th, 2001
Black Beret Affair Unmasks America�s Dirty Little Defense Secret
Saturday, March 24th, 2001
Sysyphus on the Ginza
Thursday, March 22nd, 2001
Botching Japan Policy, Big Time
Tuesday, March 20th, 2001
Commentary on the January 2001 Trade Figures
Tuesday, March 20th, 2001
Japan Cries Wolf Yet Again
Wednesday, March 14th, 2001
Gore's True Legacy?
Tuesday, March 13th, 2001
2000 Trade Deficit Shows Continuing Decline in U.S. Global Position
Sunday, March 11th, 2001
The Unnoticed American Trade Crisis
Thursday, March 8th, 2001
When the Dinosaurs Die
Tuesday, March 6th, 2001
Bush Uses Newspeak to Hide Embrace
Friday, March 2nd, 2001
Globalization and the High Tech Wage Lag
Thursday, March 1st, 2001
Vietnam: Sketches of an "Emerging Market"
Monday, February 26th, 2001
Pressing Decisions Will Reveal if Bush Is a Free Trade Ideologue
Sunday, February 18th, 2001
China Aims to Perpetuate U.S. Trade Deficit
Sunday, February 11th, 2001
High Tech in Low Gear
Saturday, February 10th, 2001
China Trade Prospects Grow Dimmer
Friday, February 9th, 2001
Britain's Industrial Decline: Adding Insult to Injury
Tuesday, January 30th, 2001